CDC Official Declares COVID as Endemic: What Are the Implications?

At this point, you might view COVID as a manageable but pesky threat that just won't disappear.

If so, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) appears to agree with you—in an August 9 interview with NPR, Aron Hall, DVM, MSPH, deputy director for science at the CDC, described COVID as being “endemic” worldwide. This means that the virus continues to circulate and has become more predictable.

COVID “is still a very significant problem,” he continued, “but one that can now be managed against the backdrop of many public health threats and not as sort of a singular pandemic threat. And so how we approach COVID-19 is now very consistent with how we approach other endemic diseases.”

So what exactly are the implications of a virus being endemic? And does everyone agree that COVID has reached endemic status? Experts explain below.

According to René Najera, DrPH, an epidemiologist and director of public health at the College of Physicians of Philadelphia, “endemic means that a disease or condition occurs regularly, or is expected at a certain rate.”

Malaria, for example, is endemic to sub-Saharan Africa, Amy Edwards, MD, a physician at University Hospitals Rainbow Babies & Children's Hospital in Cleveland, told Health.

Meanwhile, Najera told Health that an “epidemic” is when cases increase “beyond what is expected for a time and place, or population.”

Both Edwards and Najera agree with Hall’s assessment.

And though a CDC spokesperson didn’t use the word “endemic” when Health asked for comment about Hall’s remarks, they did say that “COVID-19 is a virus that is likely to continue to be with us for a long time, and CDC approaching it that way, focusing on strategies for preventing severe disease and protecting those most at risk.”

“Its health impacts increasingly resemble those of other respiratory viral illnesses, including influenza and RSV,” the spokesperson continued.

At this stage, doctors and researchers have a much better understanding of the virus and the disease it causes, Najera noted. “We know how to prevent it, and we know different ways to treat it,” he said. “There are even some antiviral medications that blunt its length and severity.”

Beyond that, there are now laboratory tests and disease surveillance systems that reveal when it’s arriving, peaking, and subsiding, Najera explained. “Like the other four human coronaviruses before it, [SARS-CoV-2] is now part of the large group of viruses that will give most of us flu-like symptoms while making a small proportion of people very sick, or worse,” he said.

Still, Edwards stressed that COVID must be taken seriously. “Just because an infection is endemic doesn’t mean it can’t harm you,” she said. “RSV and influenza are both endemic, and they can kill.”

As it stands, hundreds of COVID-related deaths are reported each week. On its website, the CDC notes that “when we look at the number of hospitalizations and deaths,” COVID-19 continues to differ from other respiratory viruses “in important ways, such as Long COVID.”

For the first several years of the pandemic, some aspects of the CDC's COVID-related guidance diverged from its prevention advice for other respiratory illnesses.

However, in March 2024, the agency took “a unified approach to addressing risks from a range of common respiratory viral illnesses, such as flu, COVID-19 and RSV,” the CDC spokesperson said. In other words, people are now encouraged to think of COVID like any other common respiratory illness.

For all respiratory illnesses, including COVID, the agency recommends that people stay home and away from others for at least 24 hours after their symptoms improve and they have not had a fever (and are not using fever-reducing medication). The agency notes that “testing is an option during the five days of additional precautions following the ‘stay home’ period.”

There's no indication that guidelines will change further as a result of Hall's statements.

Even though some experts agree that COVID-19 is endemic, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t periods when new infections surge. In fact, COVID cases tend to rise in the summer—including this one.

“We are in a summer wave,” Najera said. “The data on cases, hospitalizations, and deaths shows that we are in the middle of a wave.”

As of August 13, the CDC estimates that COVID infections are growing or likely growing in 25 states, declining or likely declining in five states, and are stable or uncertain in 17 states.

Experts attribute the rise to several factors, including low immunity and the potential ability of the current dominant variants—dubbed FLiRT—to evade the immune system. Heat also drives people indoors, further contributing to the transmission of disease.

It is unfortunate, according to Edwards, that things may worsen before improving. She mentioned that we can anticipate the number of cases to keep rising as kids go back to school.