From Confidence to Doubt: My Perception of England's Victory in the Ashes Altered after Seeing the Aussies Play | Ashes 2023 | The Guardian

Until a couple of weeks ago I was pretty confident about England’s chances of winning the Ashes, but a combination of Jack Leach’s injury and watching Australia win the World Test Championship final has got all sorts of doubts creeping in. Still, I can’t wait for the series to start and I’m delighted that it’s happening at Edgbaston, home of the raucous Hollies stand. It’s going to be buzzing and Ben Stokes’s team will absolutely love that sense of occasion.

The visitors will get plenty of stick, which won’t be anything new for most members of the Australia side, but it will be significant. There’s no doubt the crowd will be England’s 12th man and the team might need them.

There has been a lot of talk about Australia’s bowling, but their batting deserves more focus. This England team has a clear identity and real certainty about how they want to bat as a group. Australia take it differently, but there is no less clarity: every individual knows how they want to approach the game. David Warner is very busy, takes advantage of width, tries to get on the front foot early; Usman Khawaja tends to hang back but will pull if it’s short; Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith – they all seem to have a very proven, consistent method of playing at international level.

Beyond them Travis Head produced a fabulous knock at the Oval and Alex Carey looked good in both innings and had a real rhythm to his batting. There’s no uncertainty there: it is a group full of players who have scored significant international runs and know what they’re doing.

That’s not to say the bowlers won’t be a danger. I expect Scott Boland to play in the first Test, given his form and the fact that England will be carrying a few scars given the impact he made in the last Ashes series. He bowls a slightly fuller natural length than Australia’s so-called big three – Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc and the captain, Pat Cummins – which is better for English conditions. In that sense he reminds me of Jason Gillespie, who was in the Australia team I faced in 2001. They had Brett Lee, who was very quick, and Glenn McGrath, who hit back of a length and rarely threatened the stumps, but Gillespie bowled into that no man’s land where as a batter you’re not sure whether to go forward or back and I found him a real handful.

The World Test Championship final was ideal preparation for the Ashes. It’s certainly a contrast to playing Ireland and then going on a golfing holiday. Australia come into the first Test having played under pressure against classy opponents in India, and knowing that in those conditions all facets of their game looked in order. On the Oval pitch the pace and height of Australia’s bowlers came to the fore and Starc’s dismissal of Virat Kohli, one of the best players in the world, was a perfect example: when you’ve got that pace and that height, and you have a pitch with a bit of bounce, there’s no player you can’t get out.

I was surprised that Mark Wood was left out of the England team, given that if the weather continues to be good and the pitch is dry his extra pace would have been a very useful point of difference, but he has played only two of their 13 Tests under Brendon McCullum and they have proved they can take wickets without him. On a green surface with a bit of moisture they could perhaps have gone with four seamers, but in these circumstances quality spin bowling will be important and that means Moeen Ali had to go straight into the team.

I’m really torn about the selection of Moeen. He has a bank of experience that should in part make up for his lack of recent first-class matches and he suits the narrative of England packing the team with entertainers. But for a major nation to beg out of retirement a player who had lost interest in playing Test cricket feels like another nail in the coffin of this format. Moeen is a massively popular figure and a wonderful cricketer, and I can see compelling arguments for his selection, but it is more evidence that short formats rule the game. If a player retires to concentrate on other formats, at that point they have chosen their path and good luck to them. This is a national team, not a club side.

It was remarkable to hear Moeen admit he won’t produce many maidens and that Brendon McCullum had told him “he’s not bothered how I perform”. Has anyone ever come into an England squad with such a laissez-faire attitude, with no expectation, no pressure and no particular desire to be selected again in the future? His selection is a real gamble: I don’t think it says much for England’s planning and continuity of selection, but it might just come off.