Researchers Discover Climate Migration Will Cause Rapid Aging of Coastal Populations

January 8, 2024

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This is authored by Mark Blackwell Thomas, from Florida State University

The Florida State University's study indicates that as climate change causes the sea levels to rise, younger populations will migrate inland. This migration will leave the aging coastal populations to face potentially severe consequences.

The cities where these populations will be migrating to will strive to house these growing populations in a sustainable manner. Meanwhile, the ageing coastal communities will encounter new harsh realities like the departure of crucial human resources, such as healthcare workers, states Associate Professor of Sociology Matt Hauer, who is also the lead author of this study.

The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences has published these findings.

'Human migration will cause a ripple effect, affecting other people's likelihood of moving and thus creating a demographic amplification. As a result, there will be an increased demand for professionals like dentists, doctors, service workers and construction workers where these populations are increasing,' Hauer explained.

The study conducted by Hauer not only estimates possible destinations for populations affected by climate change but also includes demographic data and explores the secondary effects, revealing the challenges that lay ahead for both the coastal communities and their inland counterparts.

'Picture young families migrating from areas like Miami to start families elsewhere. The growing population itself draws even more people,' he elaborates.

A conclusion reached by the study is that indirect processes could lead to 5.3 to 18 times the number of climate migrants than those directly displaced by the rising sea levels. The research anticipates a potential increase in the median age in coastal communities by as much as 10 years by 2100.

'Those least likely to move are often the oldest people. Due to high instances of migration among younger populations, areas experiencing rapid out-migration could face accelerated population aging,' Hauer warned.

The research was jointly authored by Doctoral student Sunshine Jacobs, computational scientist Scott Kulp, and Matt Hauer.

The team developed a model to project migrations based on sea level rise data from Climate Central and migration pattern data from the US Internal Revenue Service. Jacobs mentioned the possibility of the model being adapted to study different hazards that go beyond encroaching seas.

'We have only considered sea level rise at this point. There are other factors that can cause people to move, such as heat events, wildfires, and economic dangers. The potential uses and implications of the model are astounding,' she commented.

The research appears in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal

It was provided by Florida State University