U.S. Utilities Progressing Towards Achieving 100% Renewable Energy by 2060

The transition to 100% renewable electricity by 2060 in the U.S. is largely being driven by utilities, which surpass even state policies, reveals a study by CU Boulder. Technological growth and cost efficiencies are key factors propelling this trend. The study found that the utilities sector is on track to achieve or exceed state goals across states, irrespective of individual renewable policies or political leanings. However, progress is not yet in line with the Biden administration's target of 2035.

The commitment made by American utilities to fully switch to renewable electricity by 2060 is fundamental to this energy transformation. Despite state mandates having some influence, utilities are largely responsible for this transition to renewable energy sources.

Matthew Burgess, a CIRES fellow, CU Boulder assistant professor, and co-author of the study published in the Climatic Change journal, said, “Even though many feel that policy change is not happening fast enough, the private sector’s progress is faster than anticipated. Factors like technology development, cost reduction, the shift from coal to natural gas, and the replacement of fossil fuels with renewables are key drivers, indicating that policy is not the only determinant."

Grace Kroeger initiated the evaluation as part of her honors thesis in Environmental Studies at CU Boulder, motivated by her experience in the energy and sustainability sector during an internship at a consulting firm. Kroeger stated her primary goal was to critically examine the actions of those who generate and provide our everyday energy.

Together with Burgess, Kroeger investigated the renewable energy targets of different states and the corresponding goals set by utilities. They analysed three decades worth of data to gauge how utility companies have altered practices to meet renewable energy standards, and how these changes have been influenced by state-level objectives.

States generally enforce Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and Clean Energy Standards (CES) that vary across the nation. Some states have stringent policies, some have manageable objectives, while others have none.

The study also reviewed the self-set goals of utilities, usually stated online. Like, Xcel Energy aims to produce 100% carbon-free electricity by 2050. They integrated the data to project when utilities would completely decarbonize.

The findings suggested that the industrial sector is progressing faster than policies, indicating that provided utilities stay true to their promises, the electrical grid should decarbonize entirely by 2060. The inclusion of nuclear energy in renewable energy portfolios should expedite this process to 2050.

The study found that utility companies plan to decarbonize across all states, even those lacking renewable policies or objectives.

Kroeger mentioned the example of Southern Company that has decarbonization goals, despite operating in states like Georgia, Mississippi, and Alabama, with no portfolio standards.

The study revealed a difference in blue and red states. Blue states commonly have stricter renewable energy objectives and policies, yet irrespective of mandates or standards, utilities' goals have most states, including red ones, on track for decarbonization.

However, the researchers cautioned that these results are based on utilities’ future plans, which are not guaranteed. Historical data, nonetheless, indicate that utilities have already transitioned faster to renewables and moved away from fossil fuels than originally planned.

On the downside, neither states nor utilities are progressing towards decarbonization as quickly as the Biden Administration's 2035 objective. This target was announced in April without any policy or mandates to facilitate the transition.

Burgess commented on the role of the private sector saying, “The private sector is full of intriguing developments. It's forming fascinating decarbonization connections across states while having significant ties to policy spheres.”