6 Surprising Oscar Wins in 2024 That We Wouldn't Mind | Vanity Fair

Written by Richard Lawson

The upcoming Oscars night is set to feature many predictable victories, thanks to the precedent set by previous awards ceremonies. However, the Academy sometimes surprises viewers. While it can occasionally be a disappointment (the win of Crash comes to mind), a surprise can also bring some excitement to what can often feel like a predictable broadcast. So, which unexpected wins or upsets might we see this year?

It is quite unlikely that Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer, a thrilling historical film about the creation of the nuclear bomb, does not come out on top. It has had extensive commercial success and is generally appreciated. With that said, the ranking ballot system used solely in this category can sometimes lead to unexpected results. If something goes wrong, it would be a pleasant surprise to see The Holdovers come out on top, similar to how Spotlight unexpectedly defeated The Revenant.

The Holdovers is a clever nod to the shaggy dramatic comedies of the past, featuring outstanding performances, keen writing, and an appealing aura of snug melancholy. What if a victory for such a movie encouraged Hollywood to produce more films of this nature? A Best Picture victory may do just that.

Christopher Nolan is likely to win for his directorial work for Oppenheimer. However, the overdue narrative might become more enticing for some voters. Like Spielberg, he is a blockbuster magician seeking serious recognition, and he might just get it Sunday night.

Yet, Jonathan Glazer, who directed The Zone of Interest, is also worthy of his fair share of recognition. Though he's directed only four feature films, they've all been spectacular. With The Zone of Interest, he touched upon contemporary issues, resulting in multiple nominations. Though Glazer's film is not the usual one that receives such attention, seeing its director claim the prize would be exhilarating.

In this category, Lily Gladstone from Killers of the Flower Moon and Emma Stone from Poor Things are the favorites to win, with Gladstone seemingly having the edge. However, Sandra Hüller from Anatomy of a Fall might benefit from a split vote and claim the victory. This would be remarkable since it's not frequently that a mostly non-English-language film actor ends up winning an Oscar.

If Paul Giamatti from The Holdovers can upset Oppenheimer's Cillian Murphy, it might be thrilling. But it could even be more thrilling to see Jeffrey Wright from American Fiction become the surprise winner. Moreover, the victory could also be a way of recognizing the many great performances by Wright throughout his career.

Plus, it could be quite entertaining if Bradley Cooper managed to win for Maestro. The internet would definitely have a field day, and Cooper would finally achieve the acclaim everyone presumes he wants so much. Personally, I think Cooper's performance was truly magnificent, and he brought a lot of excitement to the category.

Da’Vine Joy Randolph should and will win for The Holdovers. She’s won pretty much everything she could up to this point, and for good reason: Her performance is subtle but deeply felt, adding lovely-sad ballast to the antics of the boys around her. So, it would be a shame if she fell short at the very end. (She won’t, don’t worry.) But if something wild simply has to happen, I say give it to Jodie Foster, who seems so newly unbound in Nyad, loose and relaxed and having a great time. I’d love to see more from her in this vein. Foster already has two Oscars, so it’s not like she needs another. But she is known for giving at least one rollercoaster-ride awards show speech, and I’ve long been eager to see another one. 

There’s little chance that this won’t go to Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer, the grand culmination of what has sometimes felt like a 16-year comeback. Which is just fine by me. Then again, the other Robert in the category, Mr. De Niro, does some of his best work to date in Killers of the Flower Moon—quite an achievement for an 80-year-old in the sixth decade of a storied career. Plus, we all love a long and rambling acceptance speech, but sometimes the terse ones are even better. I can easily imagine a famously stage-shy De Niro getting up there, nodding and saying a gruff “thanks,” and then stalking off stage. Or, he breaks with tradition and issues some fascinating sermon built on the wisdom of experience. Either way, it would be something to see. Though, of course, Downey’s inevitable speech ought to be a show in its own right.