Joe Biden's Current Situation Surpasses His Status from Four Years Ago, Astonishingly | Vanity Fair

Author Chris Smith

Ponder on this: Are you in a better position now than four years ago?

This question is commonly asked of voters, originally used in 1980 by Republican candidate Ronald Reagan in a debate with President Jimmy Carter. However, as a struggling Democratic incumbent approaches another election year, an interesting question arises: Is the president in a better position now than four years ago?

There have been significant changes since January 2020. During this time, candidate Joe Biden was facing difficulties. His third attempt at securing the Democratic nomination was faltering: At the Jefferson–Jackson dinner in October 2019, typically seen as the starting point for the Iowa caucus campaign season, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders stole the limelight. Biden's supporters were noticeably sparse. He had issues raising funds and was quickly depleting his finances. These events signaled a disappointing fourth-place result in the February caucuses, falling behind Buttigieg, Sanders, and Warren. The media proclaimed Biden’s campaign as finished, and many of his supporters were deeply pessimistic. A Biden 2020 insider stated simply, “The situation was grim.”

Everything changed not long after. Approximately six weeks later, Biden had the Democratic nomination all but guaranteed. In November 2020, he emerged victorious in the race for the White House. This makes the answer to the "better off" question seemingly quite clear. Despite low job approval rates and desires from Democrats for him to step down, politically, Biden is currently better off: He is a president seeking re-election rather than just one candidate of many trying to secure the nomination of his own party. According to Tim Hogan, a senior adviser to Amy Klobuchar’s 2020 presidential campaign, "For many reasons, I'd prefer being Biden now rather than then. Some reasons are quite simple: As an incumbent president seeking a second term, you are in a good position, especially if you're likely facing an opponent you've already defeated, one who has undergone extensive national scrutiny. Adding to this, Biden's probable general election opponent, Donald Trump, is grappling with numerous legal battles."

Four years ago, Biden had several advantages. He adapted his campaign slogans, from the quirky “No Malarkey” to the more fitting “Battle for the Soul of the Nation”. Further, early in February 2020, Biden restructured his primary team, promoting Anita Dunn to head the operation and recruiting Jennifer O’Malley Dillon to execute the strategy. Of great significance, Biden secured the endorsement of renowned South Carolina Democratic congressman James Clyburn, which contributed to Black South Carolina primary voters supporting him and altered the entire race's direction entering Super Tuesday. Finally, Biden's contrast with his Democratic primary opponents worked in his favor: Most voters felt Sanders and Warren were too radical, and Buttigieg had too little experience to win the general election against Trump.

Presently, Biden has fewer options to turn things around. He is expected to remain loyal to Dunn, O'Malley, Mike Donilon, and Steve Ricchetti, the four leading his political operation, regardless of how poor any future polls may be. The broader dynamics of the political race seem pretty set: Biden and Trump are both very well-known to voters, and most have decided how they will vote. There are always unpredictable factors, but the likelihood of Trump being convicted of any crime by Election Day continues to diminish, and the general public does not seem ready to credit Biden with the improving economic landscape. CNN commentator Maria Cardona, a former Hillary Clinton operative, says, “Undoubtedly, there are challenges. But four years ago, it was uncertain whether Biden would be the nominee.”

An incumbent typically runs on his record. Biden can point to a string of domestic successes; he will also be burdened with the feeling that the world, especially in the Middle East, is growing more volatile and deadly. But for all that has happened in four years, the president’s strongest argument remains the same one that boosted him in 2020: Trump would be worse. Biden began making that pitch in earnest last week, with a speech in Pennsylvania centered on the anniversary of the January 6 insurrection and Trump as an ongoing threat to democracy. But the next 10 months will be a slog, and even some supporters are skeptical about whether Biden, four years older, can sell the argument as effectively as he did in 2020. “All the energy is going to come from Trump, on both sides—he’ll energize us and he’ll energize the Republicans,” the Biden 2020 insider says. “In a weird way, so much of this, even though he is an incumbent president, is really out of the president’s control. So much of this will depend on how pumped up Republicans are, and how repulsed Democrats are, about Donald Trump.”