Can a Democrat Secure Victory Against Rick Scott in Florida's US Senate Race?

Written by Abigail Tracy

With the announcement of Senator Joe Manchin that he wouldn't be seeking a reelection in West Virginia, the struggle for Democrats to maintain their Senate majority in 2024 just got harder. Manchin was often regarded as the only Democrat who could be victorious in the heavily Republican state of West Virginia, a state that Donald Trump won by nearly a 40 point margin in the previous presidential elections. The challenge now for the Democratic party is finding a state where they can overturn a seat, as one Democratic strategist puts it. Thus, the focus of the party should be on states beyond those Joe Biden won in 2020.

The Democratic party now appears to be shifting its attention to Florida.

Within the political community, Rick Scott is seen as one of the more susceptible Republicans in the Senate. Rejected by the Republican establishment and ranked as one of the least popular Florida politicians among voters, Scott is a reasonable target on paper. Even his electoral victories have been narrow. However, as Steve Schale, a Florida-based Democratic strategist points out, a win is a win. Despite often being “discounted because of his personality,” Scott is a disciplined politician who sticks to his message.

There is also the issue of Scott's finances. As one of the wealthiest members of the Senate, Scott is not afraid to use his personal wealth to fund his political aspirations. This becomes even more significant given that Florida is one of the most expensive states in which to campaign. When targeted by Michigan senator Gary Peters, who is running the Senate Democrats' campaign, Scott confidently shot back.

Despite everything, Democrats claim to have the ideal candidate to face off against Scott in the form of ex-representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. According to Jim Margolis, a Democratic media consultant working on Powell's campaign, Mucarsel-Powell is a stark contrast to Rick Scott. They plan to capitalize on these differences during the campaign - while Scott is one of the richest members of the US Senate, Mucarsel-Powell is an immigrant who worked for minimum wage in her early teens; while Scott is largely seen as the face of the Republican Party's effort to gut entitlement programs, Mucarsel-Powell has worked to expand Medicare; and while Scott supports federal abortion restrictions, Mucarsel-Powell continues to advocate for reproductive rights.

Democrats believe that Mucarsel-Powell could be the ideal candidate for the current circumstances. Being a Spanish-speaking Latina candidate for the US Senate in Florida, they claim she is perfectly placed to regain the support of the state’s Hispanic community. "Can Debbie shine among Hispanics and find the finances to compete? The more she can do this, the more funding she'll get", says Schale. Despite recent trends, he believes that Florida can't have gone from a state that was nearly a tie in a governor's race five years ago to a heavily Republican state overnight. He blames the party's poor performance among Hispanics for this shift.

Early polling shows that Mucarsel-Powell might be the right candidate to change Democrats’ luck in Florida. According to a poll of likely general election voters in the state, commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and conducted by the Global Strategy Group in July, 62% of Latino voters find Scott appealing, while 79% of Latino voters find Mucarsel-Powell appealing. Notably, Mucarsel-Powell also outperformed President Biden by six points in Florida in her 2020 run for the US House (though she ultimately lost)—suggesting that voters could split their ticket in 2024 to send her to the Senate, even if they don’t vote for the president.