Predicting the Premier League Title Race: Analyzing Liverpool, Man City, and Arsenal's Chances

When Leicester City was leading in the Premier League years ago, three football teams were separated by only two points. Currently, Leicester City holds the top spot in England's second division, and Manchester City, Liverpool, and Arsenal are competing closely for this year's Premier League title.

Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola's remarkable impact helped the Premier League witness capricious title races in the recent past. However, Mikel Arteta's Arsenal, which has significantly improved since last year's spring collapse, has had the best beginning to a year, making it the third strongest team in a unique three-way fight.

With the final segment of the season approaching, there's only one victory separating the top three teams in the league. Following are the predictions by Opta's supercomputer for the remaining games.

Standings:

Team Liverpool (1) (26 games, +38 GD, 60 points)

Team Man City (2) (26 games, +33 GD, 59 points)

Team Arsenal (3) (26 games, +39 GD, 58 points)

Commenting on Liverpool's leading position, Jurgen Klopp mentioned that it was unexpected. Klopp expressed that he believed it was feasible, but didn't dwell on it. Following a fifth-place finish, 22 points behind Manchester City, the analysts gave Liverpool a 3.5% chance of winning. However, these odds increased tenfold over the next six months.

Even with a complete revamp of the midfield, Klopp managed to weave a closely knit team without the deficits they had last year. Though not entirely perfect - as none of the contenders are - Liverpool's fantastic squad depth has supplemented the team during the injury crisis.

Probability of winning the title: Start of the season - 3.5% After 26 matches - 37.1% Predicted final league position: Start of the season - 3rd After 26 matches - 2nd

(All data via Opta. Correct as of 25 February 2024.)

Heading into this season, it would have necessitated more than a single loss to doubt the reigning treble winners. Man City were given a 90.2% chance of clinching a fourth consecutive Premier League trophy by Opta in August, marking them as obvious favourites.

Manchester City's inconsistency this season is down to Kevin De Bruyne's extended absence and the sale of Ilkay Gundogan. Despite the unexpected 1-0 loss to Aston Villa in December that shook many, Klopp warned against discarding Guardiola's team as an error.

As predicted, Guardiola led City to victory in nine out of 11 league games. Despite a collection of decisive games in March with Liverpool and Arsenal, City still emerges as the winner in over half of Opta's simulations.

Probability of winning the title: Start of the season - 90.2% After 26 matches - 51.3% Predicted final league position: Start of the season - 1st After 26 matches - 1st

Arsenal, on the other hand, revived its title ambitions since New Year's Eve, largely thanks to an unfair six-game winning streak. Arteta’s squad conceded only three goals while scoring 26 since a reinvigorating winter break in Dubai. Along with regained fluency, Arsenal maintained an excellent defence that kept them close to City and Liverpool at the beginning of the season.

Arteta's side boast the best defence in the division and beyond - no club in Europe's top five leagues concede fewer shots on target than Arsenal. Despite an imperious rearguard, the Gunners only have an 11.5% of ending a two-decade wait for the Premier League title according to Opta. Arteta's reliance upon a clear first-choice XI may be his side's undoing if injuries begin to bite in the closing months.

As the Spanish manager admitted after an uneventful January transfer window: 'We have one of the thinnest squads in the league, that's for sure.'

Arsenal are the only survivors from the last three-horse Premier League race which Leicester shockingly won. Only time will tell if Arsenal can pull off the surprise this season.