Predictions for Every Winner at the 2025 SAG Awards | Vanity Fair

The SAG Awards 2025 are landing later than usual, with the ceremony set to take place after final Oscar voting has concluded and just one week before Hollywood’s biggest night. That’s not to say Sunday’s glitzy awards show, which will stream live on Netflix, won’t have a significant impact on some of the season’s most competitive categories.

The actors’ guild can signal key shifts in momentum and where the true passion lies among the biggest branch in the Academy. Adrien Brody has thus far been near undefeated for his performance, but SAG loved A Complete Unknown far more than The Brutalist, so we expect Timothée Chalamet to put up more of a fight here. Similarly, if there were anywhere for Ariana Grande to dent the momentum of Zoe Saldaña, look to the voters who loved Wicked so much they even nominated Jonathan Bailey.

Over on the TV side, meanwhile, Awards Insider expects yet another big night for Shōgun, Baby Reindeer, and Hacks—but newbies like Nobody Wants This have a shot at creating just a little bit of intrigue.

Below, see our predictions for every category.

A Complete UnknownAnoraConclaveEmilia PérezWINNER: Wicked

I suppose I’ll have to eat my shoe if I am once again underestimating Anora here. After it won the top prize at PGA, DGA, and Critics Choice, Anora could easily pick up this award from the actors as well. If it does, it is a lock for best picture. But the SAG voters usually go for a very ensemble-y film here, which Anora is not. The SAG choice often lines up with the best-picture winner: They picked Oppenheimer, Everything Everywhere All at Once, CODA, and Parasite. And when it doesn’t, they’ve gone with films that have big casts like Black Panther or Hidden Figures. So while Anora has quite a few actors, it has often felt like Mikey Madison is a bit more out front. The other two front-runners here are Wicked and Conclave. Wicked is very well-liked by this group, earning the most noms overall with five. Conclave, which won the ensemble award at the Critics Choice Awards, has a strong cast with many veteran actors and showcases the sort of delicious performances that other actors admire. A Complete Unknown also racked up four nominations, and could even win here for its talented cast, who sang their hearts out. The only film we can safely count out is Emilia Pérez, assuming that many voters will wait until close to the February 21 deadline to vote and, therefore, were aware of the scandal surrounding star Karla Sofía Gascón's offensive tweets and controversial comments after the fact. Other than Anora, every other film here could really use this win to keep their hopes of best picture alive. I’m rooting for Wicked to keep this race interesting. —Rebecca Ford

Adrien Brody, The BrutalistWINNER: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete UnknownDaniel Craig, QueerColman Domingo, Sing SingRalph Fiennes, Conclave

This race has been between Chalamet and Brody for months—or at least, that’s what we, hoping for intrigue, would like to believe. The fact is that Brody has run the table thus far, taking home the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice Award, and the lion’s share of smaller, regional prizes. My feeling is that if Chalamet hopes to win the Oscar, this is his make-or-break moment—SAG has always been a relatively friendly audience to studio-produced biopics; in retrospect, when Austin Butler lost in this category for Elvis a few years ago, his Oscar bid was effectively doomed. Brody’s candidacy, meanwhile, remains viable without it, given how well he’s fared already.

Is this a lot simpler, and a sweep for Brody is what’s really in order? Quite possibly. But I’m going to predict that Chalamet will keep this race interesting. My deciding factor: SAG clearly liked A Complete Unknown way more than The Brutalist, snubbing the latter’s ensemble and supporting stars, and along those lines, Chalamet is the undeniable force to reward for what the film accomplishes. —David Canfield

Pamela Anderson, The Last ShowgirlCynthia Erivo, WickedKarla Sofía Gascón, Emilia PérezMikey Madison, AnoraWINNER: Demi Moore, The Substance

As we saw at DGA, when Demi Moore walks into the room, the room lights up. Actors especially seem to gravitate toward her bold performance in this body horror sensation, and will feel good about giving an award to someone who has been working in this business for so long, but has been ignored when it comes to awards. She won at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice, and is now considered the front-runner for the Oscar. It would be surprising if the actors went in any other direction but hers. —RF

Jonathan Bailey, WickedYura Borisov, AnoraWINNER: Kieran Culkin, A Real PainEdward Norton, A Complete UnknownJeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Kieran Culkin winning awards has been the surest thing in this otherwise unpredictable season, and there’s absolutely no reason to predict that to change at the SAGs. He beat this same group—with Gladiator II’s Denzel Washington subbing in for Jonathan Bailey, and Guy Pearce taking a sixth spot—at the Golden Globes; he’s almost certain to do the same thing at the Oscars, where he’s up once more against Borisov, Pearce, Norton, and Strong. With all due respect to his former Succession costar, it seems Hollywood has already chosen its No. 1 boy. —Hillary Busis

Monica Barbaro, A Complete UnknownJamie Lee Curtis, The Last ShowgirlDanielle Deadwyler, The Piano LessonWINNER: Ariana Grande, WickedZoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

This is where things get interesting. A few weeks ago, it seemed that Zoe Saldaña had this award in the bag—she won at Cannes, at the Globes, and at the Critics Choice Awards. But as admired as Saldaña’s performance in Jacques Audiard’s musical is, her film has been terribly damaged by her costar Karla Sofia Gascón’s old racist tweets. The scandal has nothing to do with Saldaña, and voters may be loath to look like they’re punishing her for Gascón’s actions. But it might also make members of the Screen Actors Guild reconsider contenders they were once prepared to write off in the face of what seemed like an inevitable Emilia Pérez sweep. Enter Grande, who’s been endlessly charming on the campaign trail as she’s drawn notable crowds of voters toward her at event after event. It could be that the pop star’s stock is rising just at the right time—and as Jonathan Bailey’s surprise nod proves, this particular voting body really, really loves Wicked. Those conditions might be just right to bring Grande over the top for a semi-upset of a win. —HB

BridgertonThe Day of the JackalThe DiplomatWINNER: ShōgunSlow Horses

It’s Shōgun. By this time of year on the TV awards calendar, the same shows winning the same awards gets very tiring, I know—we’ve already seen FX’s feudal Japan epic win the Emmy, Golden Globe, and Critics Choice Award. But this is a big one that ought to be celebrated. It’ll be the first non-English language series to win the prize, giving a chance for stars beyond the breakouts Anna Sawai and Tadanobu Asano to get their moment on stage. And so the extraordinary journey of this show will come to an end—that is, until season two. —DC

Kathy Bates, MatlockNicola Coughlan, BridgertonAllison Janney, The DiplomatKeri Russell, The DiplomatWINNER: Anna Sawai, Shōgun

Honestly, can they just cancel the announcement of this year’s TV drama awards and hand every prize over to Shōgun? Hollywood has been shoving prizes at FX’s feudal Japan-set epic for nearly a calendar year, starting with the Television Critics Association Awards in July of 2024 and all the way through the Emmys, Globes, and Critics Choice Awards. And while all those awards were well deserved—Shōgun really is that grand, that gorgeous, that gripping!—watching one show win over and over again makes for an exceedingly dull awards run. (See also: Succession and The Bear.) Anyway, yeah, Sawai’s going to win again, giving her both an ensemble prize and an individual SAG award. Justice for Lady Mariko! —HB

Tadanobu Asano, ShōgunJeff Bridges, The Old ManGary Oldman, Slow HorsesEddie Redmayne, The Day of the JackalWINNER: Hiroyuki Sanada, Shōgun

I’m not going to copy and paste everything I wrote in the previous blurb, but… yes, Shōgun is unstoppable when it comes to TV awards, and yes, Sanada should expect an individual SAG to place next to his Emmy and his Globe. Plus, unlike Sawai, he’ll presumably be able to keep cleaning up when Shōgun returns for its second season at some unspecified point in the future. That must be gratifying for an actor who’s done such great work for so long, with relatively little critical acclaim considering the scope of his career. —HB

Abbott ElementaryThe BearWINNER: HacksOnly Murders in the BuildingShrinking

Abbott Elementary won this category for its first season in 2022 and The Bear won for its second in 2023. But Hacks has surprisingly never won this award, despite being nominated for its first and second seasons. Well, it's finally the hit HBO series’ moment because the third season, arguably its strongest, has been cleaning up at awards shows, including winning at PGA and DGA a couple of weeks ago. —RF

WINNER: Adam Brody, Nobody Wants ThisTed Danson, A Man on the InsideHarrison Ford, ShrinkingMartin Short, Only Murders in the BuildingJeremy Allen White, The Bear

This has evolved into a close race between White and Brody—the former reigning champ held on last month by taking home another Golden Globe, while last weekend, Brody won his first major award with Critics Choice. SAG still likes The Bear, bestowing it with a leading four nominations among comedies, but there’s no denying that the FX half-hour has lost a ton of steam among awards bodies, and White has not been doing much promotion lately. I think SAG is poised to recognize a massive hit like Nobody Wants This, by contrast, given the size of the guild and the public’s embrace of the show. Brody is the obvious best way to do that—more on the best-actress category in a moment—and as a longtime working actor, he gives voters a nice story to get behind. —DC

Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants ThisQuinta Brunson, Abbott ElementaryLiza Colón-Zayas, The BearAyo Edebiri, The BearWINNER: Jean Smart, Hacks

There’s a chance Kristen Bell could swoop in here as a surprise because Nobody Wants This has been such a breakout hit for Netflix. But Ayo Edebiri and Jean Smart, the two front-runners here, have never actually competed against each other in this category. Edebiri won last year for her first nomination, and Smart won in 2021 and 2022 for the first and second seasons of Hacks. Because the third season of The Bear was met with much more tepid reviews, while Hacks’ third season received very favorable reviews, we’re betting on Smart to land her third win here. It doesn’t hurt that Hacks is a show that’s about comedians and the entertainment business, which we know actors find endlessly entertaining. —RF

Javier Bardem, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez StoryWINNER: Colin Farrell, The PenguinRichard Gadd, Baby ReindeerKevin Kline, DisclaimerAndrew Scott, Ripley

Unlike at past awards shows, there’s nowhere else for voters to recognize Baby Reindeer mastermind Richard Gadd—for some reason, SAG still doesn’t recognize the ensembles of limited series, unlike dramas or comedies. So this perhaps makes Gadd more competitive than he would’ve been otherwise—and seeing as he won this equivalent Emmy just a few months ago, he was already a very strong contender.

But the tide has turned toward Farrell, thus far on an undefeated streak between the Globes and Critics Choice Awards for his transformative work in The Penguin. The HBO series was a big hit with both audiences and critics, and has given the industry the opportunity to finally reward Farrell, who came close to some top awards on the film side for The Banshees of Inisherin a few years ago. It seems strange to suggest that Farrell’s peers, of all people, would stall his momentum on the way to the Emmys. But it’d be similarly foolish to deny the power of the Baby Reindeer phenomenon. —DC

Kathy Bates, The Great Lillian HallCate Blanchett, DisclaimerJodie Foster, True Detective: Night CountryLily Gladstone, Under the BridgeWINNER: Jessica Gunning, Baby ReindeerCristin Milioti, The Penguin

This is a two-way race between Foster and Gunning, both of whom have won several awards for these roles already. It helps that at both the Globes and the Emmys, they were competing in separate categories: Foster in lead, and Gunning in supporting. But because the SAGs don’t have supporting TV categories, they’re now going head-to-head—and while it’ll be close, we’re going to give the edge to Gunning. That’s for two reasons: one, Foster is such a decorated vet that we think voters may be inclined to spread the wealth around a bit. (Though she does only have one SAG win under her belt, from 1995—the very first year the awards were handed out.) The second is that Gunning really is that undeniable—fierce, unsettling, unforgettable—in Baby Reindeer. —HB

The BoysFalloutHouse of the DragonThe PenguinWINNER: Shōgun

Where there’s a big overall awards contender competing here, as has been the case for Squid Game and The Last of Us, that tends to be the direction that this stunt category goes in. Fortunately, the TV gods have made the job especially easy on voters this year with the introduction of Shōgun, a dramatically brilliant show that just so happens to feature some impressive period action and samurai choreography. It’s got the whole package to win this one. —DC

WINNER: Deadpool & WolverineDune: Part TwoThe Fall GuyGladiator IIWicked

Every year, there’s an Oscar contender in here (Barbie, The Woman King, Dunkirk), but those movies don’t really win in this category. It’s too bad because Dune: Part Two would feel like a nice compromise, and it would be great to see that strong film finally win something this season. What does very well in this category are films that were near the top of the box office charts for the year (Top Gun: Maverick, No Time to Die, Avengers: Endgame) so Deadpool & Wolverine, which was the second-biggest film of 2024 (behind Inside Out 2), is the likely champion. —RF

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