Democratic Party Becoming Increasingly Worried About a Possible Trump-Biden Rematch | Vanity Fair

Article by Caleb Ecarma

Recent polling data has got Democrats feeling uneasy about Joe Biden's chances of being reelected president. Published by The New York Times and Siena College on Sunday, the poll showcases the president's political weak points and lagging support in five swing states one year from the 2024 election. Respondents expressed concern about Biden's age - he would be 86 by the end of his term if reelected - as well as his handling of economy, immigration, and national security.

David Axelrod, democratic strategist and director of Barack Obama's presidential campaigns, discussed the poll on CNN Sunday. He mentioned that it may be last chance for Biden to reconsider running for re-election due to actuarial concerns related to his age. Axelrod suggested that Biden should seriously reflect on whether running for office is the right path, given the limited time available.

It's still early days before the presidential election, and polls become more accurate the closer we get to the election. So, this poll may not be a guaranteed indicator of the election outcome. But the poll is not the first sign of trouble for the Biden campaign. A poll from The Washington Post and ABC News in September showed Donald Trump leading Biden by nine points. The Times and Siena College poll shows Biden leading Trump in Wisconsin, but trailing by five points in Arizona, four in Pennsylvania, five in Michigan, six in Georgia, and significantly in Nevada. These are all states that supported Biden in 2020. The poll also showed 71% of participants, including 54% of Biden supporters, saying that Biden was “too old” for another term, with only 39% expressing similar concern about Trump, who is three years younger.

Connecticut Democrat Richard Blumenthal shared that the poll results are a warning sign for the Democratic party. He expressed his concern on CNN's State of the Union Sunday, affirming that the presidential races have been very close in recent years and no one should expect a landslide victory. He emphasized the need for hard work and resources.

Former Obama speechwriter Jon Favreau also agreed, citing that the election outcome would correlate with results from the Times and Siena College poll. He mentioned that the poll should be a call to action rather than an opportunity for dismissal for the party.

However, Democratic congresswoman from Washington, Pramila Jayapal, took a more pessimistic view. She referred to the poll's finding that Biden was on par with Trump amongst voters aged 18-29, expressing that young voters, Arab Americans, and Muslim Americans will require efforts to be convinced given their response to the White House's support for Israel's war in Gaza.

Attempting to de-emphasize the poll, the Biden campaign referenced previous polls that did not accurately predict election results. According to the Biden campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz, they are focusing on doing the work and not worrying about polls.

In the last election, a poll by the Times and Siena College identified Biden as the most electable Democrat in the primary. However, four years later, the same poll suggests Biden is a weak contender for the party. Siena College Research Institute director Don Levy stated that a random Democrat would lead Trump by seven to 12 points in five states and by three points in Nevada if the 2024 battle did not feature Biden.