Researchers caution: Human-induced global warming accelerating to record levels

The latest Indicators of Global Climate Change report, the second of its kind, shows a rise in human-made warming to 1.19°C over the last decade. The report stresses the critical low remaining carbon budget of 200 gigatonnes, roughly equal to five years of current emission levels, and underscores the urgent necessity for substantial climate measures to tackle the ongoing escalation in global warming and its impacts. The credit for this report goes to SciTechDaily.com.

The most recent climate report discloses a worrisome increase in human-induced warming and a quickly shrinking carbon budget, emphasizing the imperative need for international climate action.

The human-induced warming has soared to 1.19 °C over the previous decade (2014-2023), according to the second annual Indicators of Global Climate Change report, a jump from the 1.14 °C observed from 2013-2022 as mentioned in last year's report. The study was spearheaded by the University of Leeds.

When viewed independently, human-caused warming hit 1.3 °C in 2023. This is less than the total warming we experienced in the same year (1.43 °C), suggesting that the natural variance in climate, specifically El Niño, also contributed to the record high temperatures in 2023.

The study also indicates that the remaining carbon budget — the total amount of carbon dioxide that can be released before resulting in 1.5 °C of global warming — is approximately 200 gigatonnes (billion tonnes). This represents only five years’ worth of our current emissions.

In 2020, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) computed the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C to be between 300 and 900 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide, averaging out at 500. Since then, global warming and CO2 emissions have both persisted. As of the beginning of 2024, the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C stood at 100 to 450 gigatonnes, with a central estimate of 200.

The Indicators of Global Climate Change undertaking is overseen by Professor Piers Forster, Director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds. His statement reads as follows: “Our findings demonstrate that human-induced global warming has continued to heighten over the past year, despite climate actions causing a slowdown in the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Global temperatures are still escalating, more rapidly than ever before.

“Our research aims to monitor long-term trends caused by human activities. Observed temperatures are a result of this long-term trend tempered by shorter-term natural variations. Natural factors temporarily added about 10% to long-term warming when temperature records were broken last year.”

This harsh warning comes as climate specialists convene in Bonn to lay the groundwork for the COP29 climate conference scheduled for November in Baku, Azerbaijan.

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the authoritative source of scientific information on the state of the climate. However, since the next major assessment won't occur until approximately 2027, this results in an “information gap,” particularly as climate indicators are swiftly changing.

An open data, open science platform – the Climate Change Tracker’s Indicators of Global Climate Change dashboard – complements the new report, providing easy access to updated information on critical climate indicators.

The latest Indicator report, published by over 50 scientists in the journal Earth System Science Data, also offers new insight into the impact of sulfur emission reductions in the global shipping industry. Although the sulfur has a cooling effect on the climate by reflecting sunlight back to space and aiding in the formation of reflective clouds, those impacts have lessened due to ongoing reductions in emissions.

Despite being counterbalanced last year by aerosol emissions from Canadian wildfires, the report states that the long-term trend still indicates a continued decline in the expected cooling effect from aerosol emissions.

Professor Forster continued, “Fossil fuel emissions account for approximately 70% of all GHG emissions and are clearly the primary instigator of climate change. However, additional sources of pollution from cement production, farming, deforestation, and reductions in sulfur emissions are also contributing to the rise in temperature.

“To limit global warming, we need a swift drop-off in greenhouse gas emissions towards net zero. Concurrently, it’s essential to create more resilient societies. The destruction from wildfires, drought, flooding, and heat waves witnessed globally in 2023 cannot become the new normal.”

It is hoped that the report will play a strong role in informing new Nationally Determined Contributions, the improved climate plans that every country in the world has promised to put forward to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by 2025 to cut emissions and adapt to climate impacts.

Reference: “Indicators of Global Change report” 4 June 2024, Earth System Science Data.